South America 4, Europe 3

The 2010 World Cup has a strong South American flavor. During the group-level stage, the five teams from that continent – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay, have won 76 percent of the total available points, whereas the thirteen teams from Europe have posted a 47 percent record. Not surprisingly, four out of five South American teams have qualified for the quarter-final stage, whereas three out of thirteen European teams have made it to the last eight. This is the best ever world cup record, where South Americans clearly dominated the Europeans.
More than ever before, Brazil and Argentina have become almost entirely European-style teams. Moreover, while the South American qualifiers are traditionally very competitive, the qualifying groups in Europe have decreased in toughness. England entered the tournament with very high expectations, but Fabio Capello’s men managed just a draw against the USA and failed to score against Algeria. The 2006 finalists – Italy and France, were the biggest disappointments, with no wins, three ties and three losses. Former French star Eric Cantona said that it was a good thing that France came home after just three games, adding “One more week and they would have eaten each other […] It is best to avoid cannibalism”. Shocking to me was the team of Switzerland that came so close to the second place despite failing to send a single shot on goal in the first two games.
It is now only eight teams standing in World Cup 2010 as we reached the quarter-final stage and this means that serious predictions could be made about the winner of the tournament. First game: Netherlands vs. Brazil. Both teams have been impressive so far, showing attacking flair to rival every team in the world. Over the last twenty years Brazil have become the Italians of South America, with a much disciplined defense and extremely efficient strikers. Though Holland defense seem more vulnerable and potentially penetrable by the likes of Robinho and Fabiano, I do reckon that the threat of Sneijder and Robben could push Brazil to the edge. If Dutch team scores first, it will be extremely hard for the samba boys to come from behind. Prediction: NED 2-1 BRA. Second game: Uruguay vs. Ghana. This is the weakest game of the quarter-finals, and I do believe that the winner will disappear in the very next game. Third game: Argentina vs. Germany. This is the toughest to call of all of the quarter-finals. Both teams have been hugely impressive so far, with each of them possessing plenty in the way of goals. Germany has racked up four goals on two occasions, while Argentina has scored ten in their four games. This is without the magician Lionel Messi finding the back of the net as well. Unfortunately though, this does not mean it will be goals, goals and more goals in this quarter final. Both coaches will study their opponent’s attacking strength and will look to deal with this in the tactics they deploy. The first goal will be crucial but I expect Argentina to grab it. Then, they will go on and stamp a convincing victory, avoiding the 2006 shootout mishap. Prediction: ARG 1-0 GER. Fourth game: Paraguay vs. Spain. The fourth quarter-final is a walk in the park for the Spaniards. They have plenty more to show in this tournament and their game is one level above the other contenders and that clear-cut difference should send the Europeans to victory. Prediction: PAR 0-2 SPA.
If my quarter-finals predictions prove right, it would set-up a very interesting semi-final game between Spain and Argentina. On paper, I should take Spain, but Messi could win the game for Argentina by himself. Frankly speaking, I have no clear picture on the winner of this semi-final game. If no surprises arise, the winner of the 2010 World Cup should come from the abovementioned enigmatic semi-final.

2 Responses to “South America 4, Europe 3”


  • Hey Toni,

    There were some crazy moments in this phase; too bad for Ghana though … I also placed my bet on NED and hope it will actually win the cup; anyway GER looks on the wave very well …

    It is funny how England is gone when I remember “an opportunity to lightheartedly explain quantitative techniques,” applied a mathematical model, built to screen and identify stocks, to soccer. It used data including bookmakers’ odds, official FIFA world rankings, previous results and the match schedule to predict a winner.” JPM model sayd …

    I guess Spain is your call for the winner right ?

    BogdanC

    • BogdanC,
      I was spot on Brazil but way off on Argentina. My bet is on Spain. Even if Spain does not make to the final, NED will not get the cup anyway.

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