A year to the day, I took the dazzling initiative of setting up the “It Is What It Is” blog. First and foremost, all I intended was to share with my readers an unbiased and educated opinion about the complicated world of finance. Today I would like to walk through the main topics that I have addressed over the last twelve months. Where should I start? Maybe back in the summer of 2008, when I have been invited to the Romanian Diaspora Conference and where I presented my research paper “Financial Meltdown – Effect on CEE Credit Markets”. The conclusion of my work stated that Hungary, the Baltic countries and Romania are the most vulnerable economies to the global credit crunch. We all know what happened in the following months thereafter.
In August 2009 I posted the article “The Square Root Recession” where I suggested that, the square root sign-shape was basically a combination of a V-shape for the last three quarters of 2009 and an L-shape for the whole year of 2010. In September 2009, I chose to address an up in the air subject with the article “Inflation vs. Deflation”, where I concluded that the US economy would face a short-term period of deflation, followed by a by mid-term period of low inflation and inflation in the long term. Within the same month, when EUR:USD was trading around the 1.45 level, I included in the article “Fundamental FX Triad” a forecast of 1.25 for the European single currency. In fact the euro collapsed down to almost its inception quote of January 1999.
In early October 2009, in the article “In NBR We Trust”, I debated the bad timing of the Romanian central bank’s monetary policy. As per my theory, NBR could have started switching to a more dovish stance beginning September 2008, such that one year later the benchmark interest rate could have reached the six-percent level. As we all know, that happened with a six-month lag, which have prolonged the length of the economic recession. In addition to all the articles discussing the current events, I considered very important getting my readers acquainted with the mechanics of the capital markets (e.g., articles “Becoming a Trader I/II”, articles “Home $weet Home I/II/III”, articles “Weapons of Mass Destruction I/II/II”, article “CDS – The Usual Suspect”, etc).
In mid November 2009, in the article “China – A Financial Time Bomb”, I suspected that China might be the next bubble to burst, after three decades of overheated economy with an annual average growth of around 10%. To this day, the financial community has split opinions as far as the Chinese bubble is concerned. In mid December 2009, in the article “EUR on The Verge of Breakdown”, I signaled the looming danger within the Eurozone, especially the massive sovereign debt issue facing the PIIGS countries, concluding that the probability of EU-16 breakdown was nowhere near zero.
This January, I stressed-out the magnitude of the budget deficits within the Mediterranean countries in the articles: “Greek – Another Tragedy”, “PIIGS Sacrifice” or “Money vs. Politics”. In February, I did discuss about the balance of power between US and EU in the article “Old World vs. New World”. In March, I started the series of “CEO Wall of Shame”, opening with Bear Stearns’s Alan Greenberg followed by Citigroup’s Charles Prince. This April, I touched the subject of SEC vs. Goldman Sachs, a historical case that just ended last week by a half-billion dollar settlement.
Besides the abovementioned topics, I did include few articles about politics, few articles about the world of sports, some investment ideas and some witty commentaries. For the next year, I hope I would be able to keep the same pace (i.e., 77 articles) and, if possible, show more forward looking ability.
Toni,
Thanks you for doing this and hopefully too, you will keep the same pace and unbiased educated opinion.
Appreciate,
BogdanC
BogdanC,
Thanks for your kind words.
Tony,
Congrats for your first year of blogging. It was a pretty good year. We appreciate you taking your time to do something out of sheer enthusiasm.
Best of luck, and keep up the good work.
Viorel
Viorel,
You are my true friend. I wholeheartedly thank you.
Hi Toni,
Your blog is definitely a valuable source of information and provides a professional view on global financial markets industry, and, honestly, it well improved my knowledge in this field, as I am a youngster who wants to gain as much info’s and insights in this area as possible.
Congrats and keep it up.
Rares
Rares,
If I can help in any way, shape or fashion, I could not be happier…
Toni,
it’s not that often that a blogger challenges his readers intelectually to such an extent … i am very grateful for the highly educational exercise that you provide.
Thank you!
Ovidiu,
As you could see, I am doing this thing from pure passion. There is no monetary benefit for me at the end of the day. This late month I have been very busy, but I hope I will get back to the classic pace of 6-7 articles per month.
Buna ziua,
In sfarsit am gasit si eu un blog despre economie, in Romania, unde se pot citi articole interesante despre evolutia macro si micro,analize, etc.Problema este ca nu sunt vorbitor de limba engleza si este un pic greu de tradus cu aproximatie continutul articolelor si al comentariilor.Daca nu deranjeaz pe nimeni( in primu rand pe Toni)o sa continui sa intervin in masura cunostintelor mele, dar cu, comentarii in limba romana(nu fara greselile de rigoare).
Un salut pentru toti,si o saptamana buna!
Alex,
Welcome to my blog! If you want to get access to what’s going on in the world of finance/economics you will have to get EN on your tool belt.
Toni,
What are the main reasons/news/reports why the EUR/USD rebounded that much from the low ?
Karl
Karl,
Apparently, people bought-in the EU’s $1B rescue plan. Not only that, but also did they return to US’s massive deficit story. That is the main idea. There is more to say definitely.
Multumesc mult Toni!
No problem.
Buna,
Sunt persoane pe aici care opereaza cu Indici?
Cum vad eu saptamana viitoare:
Cadem in jurul lui 1055 de SP, posibil Luni,face maxime in 1090,posibil miercuri,ziua in care piata schimba directia,dupa care vedem minime de 1010(aproximativ),posibil Luni, 30 de August.
Istoricamente, ultimele 2 sapt din August sunt cele mai rele din punct de vedere bursatil.
Luna cea mai dura este Septembrie, dar minimele se fac in Octombrie.
Astept contraargumente, si mult succes!
Very funny. It looks like you got yourself a crystal ball. Everyone know that the second half is very volatile on the market. I hope you do know the reason. Historically speaking, October is the month when crashes tend to occur. But, as you know, history is not the recipe for the future. Tell us something we don’t know!
Toni,
May I ask what is the reason ? (Everyone know that the second half is very volatile on the market. I hope you do know the reason).
Karl
Karl,
It is the time American kids have no more campus options and go with their parents on vacation, hence the Wall Street guys are taking off. The last couple of weeks in August, the prices have large swings due to limited bid/ask volumes.
Buna ziua,
Este clar ca nu am nici o bila de cristal!
Este pur si simplu un “traseu” care il fac la inceput de saptamana, pe baza graficelor si a unor anumiti indicatori, incadrat de macro,etc.Asta nu inseamna ca se si adeveresc respectivele nivele.Exemplul este ca eu astept astazi SP in jur de 1055, nu ajunge-nu cumpar,revizuiesc totul, si incerc sa gasesc alt punct de intrare.(lucru f probabil vazand cum a inchis EU).In legatura cu faptul ca istoria nu este reteta ptr viitor este f adevarat, dar eu gasesec f multe similitudini cu trecutul.(comparand graficele cu crizele anterioare si cum sa iesit din ele, ore la care se produc miscari importante in piata,etc)
Eu incerc sa creez o dezbatere,unde nu este important daca am “ghicit” nivelele respective, ci daca eu am castigat bani sau am pierdut bani,sa impartasesc cunostintele mele, si sa analizez orice argument contrariu.
Scuze ptr exprimare, si multumesc ptr raspunsul tau.
Alex,
No problem then. Feel free to share your trading ideas with all my readers!